The first case of SARS-CoV2 Coronavirus (COVID-19) was reported in Lagos, Nigeria on February 27, 2020. As at April 2, 2020 its infection has been reported in 13 states of the country. In the visualization below, we explore the number of cases in the states with time. Data was collected from the COVID-19 Nigeria real-time monitoring and evaluation platform.

At a 95% prediction interval, by May 1, 2020, with all current conditions still the same, we estimate that the number of cases in Nigeria would have reached 1,885. Click To Tweet

Within this reporting period, Lagos has the highest number of cases at 98. The total number of COVID 19 case stands at 184, 20 has been discharged (17 are Lagos State cases, two are Ogun State cases managed in Lagos State (index and second case), and one Ekiti State case), while 2 deaths was reported from the University of Abuja Teaching Hospital in Abuja , as at April 2, 2020. In a months time, how many cases of COVID-19 should Nigeria expect? Currently using source data from February 27 and April 1, 2020, we did a predictive analysis through May 1, 2020. At a 95% prediction interval, by May 1, 2020, with all current conditions still the same, we estimate that the number of cases in Nigeria would have reached 1,885. Between April 3 and May 1, 2020, 1,701 more cases would have been reported and more than fifty cases will be reported from mid April. (Kindly roll over the line chart below to reveal the number of cases per day).

So what do we know about the 184 confirmed cases? According to the Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC), of 184 confirmed cases, a little above half (55%) are males, 27% are females, while others have incomplete epidemiological information. The age group that is mostly affected are people of ages between 31 – 40 and 51 – 50. This age group forms over half of the confirmed cases. 93 of the 184 confirmed cases, are people that arrived the shores of the country from high risk countries, 35 are those that have contact with those that returned from high risk countries. Information about the other 56 could not be ascertained as at April 2, 2020. Am sure you might be wondering why almost 56 of the 184 confirmed cases have incomplete information – In assessing epidemiological studies, misinformation or incomplete information can complicate the interpretation and application of an epidemiological information. In this case, routine data is collected from 13 states of the country, with results being verified and collated in real – time. Amidst this, there might be some missing information at collection, as such interpreters will have to wait and verify the missing information before it is shared with users.

Of the 184 cases confirmed as at April 2, 2020 in #Nigeria only 93 have travel history to high risk countries and age groups mostly affected are those between 31 – 40 and 51 – 60 while more males were affected than female #COVID19Nigeria Click To Tweet

For a country whose population is estimated at 190 million, having a total number of 184 cases after one month that the index case was reported seems absurd. Perhaps, there are certain conditions in – country contributing to the low number of cases. The most obvious could be that Nigeria does not have the resources to test its citizens. For example, testing of suspected or likely cases during this reporting period has not exceeded 400. In comparison to other 8 countries and district that reported their first case of Coronavirus on February 27, Nigeria records the least number of cases reported after the small jurisdiction of Monaco. Also noteworthy, is that Nigeria has the largest population in relation to these other countries. New Zealand, with a population the size of Abuja – 4.7 million has conducted 26,000 tests and has 797 cases. Lithuania with a population the size of Ekiti state – 2.7 million, has conducted 15,000 tests and has 649 cases. Among the countries that announced their first case of Coronavirus on February 27, Nigeria has the least number of cases as at April 2, except for the sovereign – city state of Monaco. Mexico, with a population of 129 million has the largest number of cases among the 8 countries – with 1,510 cases as at April 2, 2020.  

In the coming days, we will see how things changes – especially as it concerns the number of tests. The Nigerian government has promised to purchase more testing kit, in order to be able to test more citizens per day. Also, to think of other factors that might be causing the low number of cases – cultural context, the socio-demographic factors, the number of international flights that enter the country, and a list of others. We look forward to providing more insights into the the response of the Nigerian government and its citizens on the COVID-19 outbreak. In whatever you do at this time, please stay at home, stay safe and healthy!

This insight is a periodic publication by Cloneshouse Nigeria’s Center for Learning, Evaluation and Monitoring and Dataphyte as part of the COVID-19 Nigeria Map deployment for evaluators and data journalists.

[CLICK] to download all data used for analysis in this report

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